單擊此處編輯母版標題樣式,單擊此處編輯母版文本樣式,第二級,第三級,第四級,第五級,*,單擊此處編輯母版標題樣式,單擊此處編輯母版文本樣式,第二級,第三級,第四級,第五級,*,單擊此處編輯母版標題樣式,單擊此處編輯母版文本樣式,第二級,第三級,第四級,第五級,*,公共管理研究方法,公共管理研究方法的本質(zhì)、特點和重要性,Nature,Characteristics,and Importance of Research Methods in Public Administration.,1.,科學(xué)研究方法的重要性,2.,科學(xué)家與科學(xué)方法,3.,事務(wù)的關(guān)系與實證主義,4.,科學(xué)理論,5.,范式導(dǎo)引的常規(guī)科學(xué)和超范式的革命科學(xué),6.,研究的評估標準,7.,定量研究舉例,1.,方法的重要性,中國公共管理學(xué)習(xí)西方的一些問題,小馬拉大車,黑虎掏心,生吞活剝,淺嘗輒止,望文生意,同名異質(zhì),李代桃僵,緊跟潮流,名人、名校、名公司,狗熊掰棒,工具能導(dǎo)致決策的質(zhì)變：正確使用的重要性,描述效果,Descriptive Curve,拉法爾曲線,Laffer Curve,公共選擇,Public Choice,邏輯思迪克回歸,Logistic Analysis,Fiscal Policy(National Debt),Arthur Laffer,公共選擇理論,1,。國家的性質(zhì)：公共決策,2,。國家公務(wù)員理性人假設(shè),3,。否定公共利益,4,。決策成本與執(zhí)行成本的結(jié)合點,SPSS,給出,11,種一元回歸擬合模型,SPSS,函數(shù),名,稱,方,程,Linear,線性函數(shù)模型,Y=b,0,+b,1,X,Quadratic,二次函數(shù)模型,Y=b,0,+b,1,X+b,2,X,2,Compound,復(fù)合函數(shù)模型,Y=b,0,b,1,X,Growth,生長函數(shù)模型,Y=e,(b0+b1X),Logarithmic,對數(shù)函數(shù)模型,Y=b,0,+b,1,lnX,Cubic,三次函數(shù)模型,Y=b,0,+b,1,X+b,2,X,2,+b,3,X,3,S,S,曲線模型,Y=e,(b0+b1/X),Exponential,指數(shù)函數(shù)模型,Y=b,0,e,b1X,Inverse,逆函數(shù)模型,Y=b,0,+b,1,/X,Power,冪函數(shù)模型,Y=b,0,X,b1,Logistic,Logistic,函數(shù)模型,Y=1/,（,1/u+b,0,b,1,X,）,曲線估計綜合輸出結(jié)果,Dependent,Mth,Rsq,d.f.,F,Sigf,b0,b1,b2,b3,y,LOG,.596,51,75.15,.000,-57565,20784.4,y,INV,.034,51,1.79,.187,30709.7,-31044,y,QUA,.989,50,2346.74,.000,-4210.2,198.848,-.0462,y,CUB,.990,49,1548.53,.000,-4589.1,207.662,-.0681,1.2E-05,y,COM,.701,51,119.35,.000,2866.78,1.0048,y,POW,.868,51,335.95,.000,151.536,.9341,y,S,.124,51,7.22,.010,9.0575,-2.2104,y,GRO,.701,51,119.35,.000,7.9609,.0047,y,EXP,.701,51,119.35,.000,2866.78,.0047,（說明：在上表中，,Mth,表示函數(shù)模型形式，,Rsq,表示決定性系數(shù)，,df,表示自由度，,F,表示,F,檢驗值，,Sigf,表示,F,檢驗值的實際顯著性水平即,p,值，,b0,、,b1,、,b2,、,b3,表示常數(shù)項和相應(yīng)變量的回歸系數(shù)。）,Total Net Worth in U.S.:$42.3892 trillion($42,389,200,000,000)(non-labor wealth.Plus 75%,170 trillion).,Source:Arthur B.Kennickell,A Rolling Tide:Changes in the Distribution of Wealth in the U.S.,1989-2001,Table 10.(Levy Economics Institute:November,2003),0,Figure:Share of capital income earned by top 1%and bottom 80%,1979-2003(From Shapiro&Friedman,2006.),Figure:CEOs average pay,production workers average pay,the S&P 500 Index,corporate profits,and the federal minimum wage,1990-2005(all figures adjusted for inflation),Source:,Executive Excess 2006,the 13th Annual CEO Compensation Survey from the Institute for Policy Studies and United for a Fair Economy Source:,Executive Excess 2006,the 13th Annual CEO Compensation Survey from the Institute for Policy Studies and United for a Fair Economy,科學(xué)的方法,內(nèi)涵,外延,2.,科學(xué)家與科學(xué)方法,Scientists and Scientific Methods,Archimedies(287-212 B.C.).Archemedes Principle-the principle of the boyant force.Integral calculus,2000 years earlier than that of Newtons.,Euclid(c300.B.C),Greek Geometrician.Eulidean Geometry,also known as plane geometry,geometry based on the principle Euclid postulated:only one line can be drawn through a given point parallel to a given line.Symmetry.,Claudius Ptolemy(A.D.127-151).,Nicolaus Copernicus(1473-1543,Polish astronomer).,Galileo Galilei(1564-1642,Italian astronomer).William Harvey(1578-1657,British medical scientist,father of modern medical science.,Scientists and Scientific Methods,Isaac Newton(1642-1727).Father of modern physics.Discoverer of the law of motion.,James Watt(1736-1819,Scottish engineer and steam engine inventor).,Michael Faraday(1791-1867,pioneer of the electrical age.First electric motor.,Antoine Laurent Laviosier(1743-1794,French Scientist,pionior of chemistry.,Charles Lyell(1797-1875,Scottish,father of geology),Charles Darwin(1809-1882,British biologist,known as the Newton of biology.Survival of the fittest.,Charles Darwin(1809-1882,British biologist,known as the Newton of biology.Survival of the fittest.,Marie Curie(1867-1934),discover of radium(Mother of radiology).,Albert Einstein(1879-1955).The theory of relativity.Father of Quantum physics.(Femi,Slazar,etc.),科學(xué)方法,1.,觀察,假設(shè),實驗,2.,記錄規(guī)律性事件,3.,遵從真理和事實,4.,總結(jié)理論,3.,事務(wù)的關(guān)系,Compositional,Evolutionary,Functional,Transitional,Theological,Metaphysical,Positive(factual and causal),Interpretive,因果關(guān)系,1,）。,X,Y,好的教育,(X),可以導(dǎo)致好的工作,(Y),；,2,）。,X Y-Z,好的教育,(X),可以導(dǎo)致好的工作,(Y),好的工作帶來好的學(xué)習(xí)機會（,Z,）；,3,）。,X Y-Z-X,好的教育,(X),可以導(dǎo)致好的工作,(Y),好的工作帶來好的學(xué)習(xí)機會（,Z,），好的學(xué)習(xí)機會可以導(dǎo)致更好的教育；,4,）。,X-Y,同時,Y X.,好的教育（,X,）和好的工作（,Y,）互為因果。,X,Y B,Z,母親的教育水平,(x),，家庭經(jīng)濟條件,(y),，孩子的努力（,z,）,共同是良好教育的原因,I want to know,I want to know why the star falls to burn the earth,Why the moon changes the shape,Where the sun goes at night,Where the wind comes from?,The wind comes from the cave,Far to the north a young god lives in that cave,He dreams of a girl,He sighs,The wind stirs with his breath.,三段論,(syllogism),與邏輯思維,歸納法,(inductive reasoning),的過程是從特殊到一般,試圖從許許多多的個案中,歸納出一個一般性的普遍真理,.,而演繹法,(deductive reasoning),則從一般到個別,從普遍真理出發(fā),來證明個別的真實性,.,具體例子有,在歸納法中,大前提,:,柏拉圖是人,;,小前提,:,柏拉圖的生命不是永恒的,;,大前提,:,亞里斯多德是人,小前提,:,亞里士多德的生命不是永恒的,;,.,結(jié)論,:,所有的人的生命都不是永恒的,.,在演繹法中,大前提,:,人的生命都不是永恒的,;,小前提,:,亞瑟王是人,;,結(jié)論,:,亞瑟王的生命不可能是永恒的,.,二十世紀五十年代的實證主義的特點,重科學(xué)作為一個產(chǎn)品；,有一套相關(guān)的語言或數(shù)字對因果關(guān)系進行描述；,公理性的邏輯結(jié)構(gòu)和相關(guān)性；,認為這些因果關(guān)系的描述中至少有一部分是可被經(jīng)驗性的觀察來檢測、證實或證偽；,科學(xué)是累積性的，跨文化的，獨立于研究者個性和地位的客體。,理論和研究傳統(tǒng)有共性和相通性；,科學(xué)的進步有時包涵與舊體系不同的斷代性飛躍；,實證主義者被描述為一個認為所有正的知識都是科學(xué)的學(xué)派，認為所有的一切都可以被測量,在近現(xiàn)代，實證主義也隨