Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,*,國內(nèi),MPV,市場分析,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,1,2021年國產(chǎn)MPV市場分析,及2021年展望,2,Content,2021年MPV市場分析,2021年市場展望,BuickGL8,Canival,嘉華,Grand-Voyager,Caravan,凱領(lǐng),Caddy(,停產(chǎn),),*,Previa,大霸王,*Grandis,格蘭迪斯,3,合資商務(wù),2021年國內(nèi)MPV分類,合資兼用,自主商務(wù),自主兼用,Refine,瑞風(fēng),Future,風(fēng)行,Grace,閣瑞斯,Freewind,自由風(fēng),MP-X,蒙派克,Yunsun,御軒,OrientalSonCross,Karry,開瑞,優(yōu)翼,Shuaike,帥克,Premacy(Freema)*,Joyear景逸,Kylin騏菱,Cowry嘉譽(yù),Midi迷迪,Fengshang風(fēng)氣,Jiexun杰勛,Riich開瑞優(yōu)雅,CM8,Odyssey奧德賽,S-max麥柯斯,Touran途安,Geniss駿逸,Soveran停產(chǎn)),*Mazda5,*Carens佳美,4,10,9,27,國產(chǎn),進(jìn)口,Xenia,森雅,M80,4,MPV,16,個(gè)品牌,國內(nèi)五大集團(tuán),MPV,可供產(chǎn)品匯總,5,BuickGL8,陸尊,Touran,途安,S-max,麥柯斯,Freewind,自由風(fēng),Yunsun,御軒,Joyear,景逸,Kylin,騏菱,Odyssey,奧德賽,Fengshang,風(fēng)氣,Jiexun,杰勛,CM8,Xenia,森雅,M80,Shuaike,帥克,Future,風(fēng)行,Geniss,駿逸,15,個(gè)產(chǎn)品,/55%,每年新車榜,6,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2,1,1,2,3,4,8,4,3,3,瑞風(fēng),風(fēng)行,奧德賽,閣瑞斯,菱紳,嘉華,途安,開迪,陸尊,駿逸,V5,自由風(fēng),風(fēng)尚,Smax,御軒,大捷龍,凱領(lǐng),CM8,蒙派克,森雅,M80,杰勛,景逸,騏菱,迷迪,新奧德賽,帥克,新普力馬,閣瑞斯睿翔,M8,M6(BYD),和悅,RS,2004,2003,2002,2001,2001,2008,2007,2006,2005,2004,2003,2002,2010,2009,？,？,國產(chǎn),MPV,定位矩陣,7,商務(wù),舒適,生活,實(shí)用,GL8,奧德賽,凱領(lǐng),瑞風(fēng),新普力馬,嘉華,帥克,風(fēng)行,閣瑞斯,途安,駿逸,東方之子,Cross,杰勛,迷迪,景逸,森雅,*,紅色字體,為該市場中領(lǐng)頭羊車型,.,下半年,MPV,銷量大為改觀,8,2021-2021年MPV月度銷量走勢,9,2021年月均銷量：1.69萬輛；2021年月均銷量：2.1萬輛，增長26.1%,1-1,月,1-2,月,1-3,月,1-4,月,1-5,月,1-6,月,1-7,月,1-8,月,1-9,月,1-10,月,1-11,月,1-12,月,增長率,-26.3%,-13.9%,-11.5%,-8.9%,-6.8%,-5.3%,-3.2%,1.3%,9.0%,14.1%,21.3%,26.1%,MPV,季度銷量變化曲線圖,10,2007,2021,2021,2009 12,2008 12,MoM,2009 1-12,2008 1-12,YoY,09share,08share,Sedan,823787,452434,82.1%,7473106,5046934,48.1%,89.2%,88.7%,MPV,31292,13930,124.6%,248943,197393,26.1%,3.0%,3.5%,SUV,79374,40599,95.5%,658821,447722,47.1%,7.9%,7.9%,Total,934453,506963,84.3%,8380870,5692049,47.2%,100%,100%,跨界車,2009 1-12,2008 1-12,增長率,驪威勁銳版,45164,16879,167.6%,畢加索,2692,3365,-20.0%,天語,HB,50409,38886,29.6%,CrossPolo,7917,6581,20.3%,酷熊,10038,0,逍客,33877,23772,42.5%,CRV,105233,80607,30.6%,賽馬,6216,6812,-8.7%,北斗星,76138,50895,49.6%,合計(jì),337684,227797,48.2%,MPV,2009 1-11,2008 1-11,YoY,2009Share,2008Share,Gap,1.0-1.6L,25287,16699,51.4%,11.6%,9.1%,2.5%,1.6-2.0L,60182,46503,29.4%,27.7%,25.4%,2.3%,2.0-2.5L,102809,93265,10.2%,47.2%,50.8%,-3.6%,2.5-3.0L,29373,26951,9.0%,13.5%,14.7%,-1.2%,合計(jì),217651,183418,18.7%,100.0%,100.0%,0.0%,小排量,MPV,受寵，跨界車分食明顯,11,48.2%,自主商務(wù),2009 1-12,2008 1-12,增長率,市占率,瑞風(fēng),46033,36304,26.8%,46.6%,風(fēng)行,16860,14108,19.5%,17.1%,閣瑞斯,14664,12079,21.4%,14.9%,東方之子,Cross,8257,9522,-13.3%,8.4%,蒙派克,6524,2549,156%,6.6%,御軒,2606,1682,55%,2.6%,帥克,1712,0,1.7%,開瑞,1051,1907,-44.9%,1.1%,自由風(fēng),978,929,5.3%,1.0%,合計(jì),98685,79080,24.8%,100%,高端車型,2009 1-12,2008 1-12,增長率,市占率,GL8,40103,36286,10.5%,41.6%,奧德賽,28395,28872,-1.7%,29.5%,途安,20087,12028,67.0%,20.9%,S-max,4600,3918,17.4%,4.8%,駿逸,1770,3797,-53.4%,1.8%,嘉華,858,1155,-25.7%,0.9%,大捷龍,290,2187,-86.7%,0.3%,凱領(lǐng),182,776,-76.5%,0.2%,菱紳,2,1209,-99.8%,0.0%,開迪,0,45,-100%,0.0%,合計(jì),96287,90273,6.7%,100.0%,低端暢銷,高端緩銷,12,從2021年起，各企業(yè)逐漸認(rèn)識到啟動(dòng)三四線市場的重要性，加上2021年的政策有利于低端車型的銷售。競爭已經(jīng)由對一二級市場的品牌推廣、廣告宣傳，逐漸轉(zhuǎn)移到對三四級市場消費(fèi)潛力的深入挖掘，以找到新的市場增長點(diǎn)并擴(kuò)大市場銷售。,品牌集中度高：前3家達(dá)57.5%基于1-11月上牌數(shù),銷量在,2.5,萬輛以上的有,3,家，占,57.5%,；,1,萬輛以上的有,2,家，,Top5,銷量約占,3/4,。,13,Top3,57.5%,Top11,90.5%,Top5,73.5%,區(qū)域集中度高：前7省市達(dá)60.4%基于1-11月上牌數(shù),北京、上海、廣東銷量同比下降比較大；,在1萬輛以上的有7個(gè)省市，銷量占60%。,14,7,省市超萬輛,Top7,60.4%,Top12,74.7%,Top20,91%,前6省市前6種車型銷量：江浙兩省的品牌接受度高基于1-11月上牌數(shù),15,奧德賽,GL8,途安,歷年MPV銷量排名,16,國產(chǎn),MPV,質(zhì)量有明顯提高,17,問題下降,79%,2009 1-12,2008 1-12,增長率,09,年占比,08,年占比,Gap,09,年占比,08,年占比,合資商務(wù),41433,40449,2.4%,17%,20%,-3.8%,38.7%,45.7%,合資兼用,54854,49824,10.1%,22%,25%,-3.2%,自主商務(wù),98685,79080,24.8%,40%,40%,-0.4%,61.3%,54.3%,自主兼用,53971,28039,92.5%,22%,14%,7.5%,合計(jì),248943,197392,26.1%,100%,100%,100%,100%,國進(jìn)洋退,:,自主商務(wù)和兼用,MPV,占,60%,以上,18,前4大車型2021年銷量走勢及用戶流向,19,當(dāng)前,MPV,市場,MSRP,與交易價(jià),20,圖中紅色和藍(lán)色曲線為,MSRP,和,TP,價(jià)格指數(shù)走勢，柱狀圖描述,MSRP,和,TP,指數(shù)之差,引用資料,21,2021年MPV市場特點(diǎn),小排量低端車熱銷,兼用型MPV需求提升(與政策因素相關(guān),與乘用車大勢保持一致),新種類(Cross)車型開始分食MPV的份額,集中度“雙高：品牌的和區(qū)域的,制造水平明顯提升JD Power IQS,洋品牌改“姓或停產(chǎn)，如：,大發(fā)森雅一汽森雅；菱紳、開迪停產(chǎn),出現(xiàn)“國進(jìn)洋退的局面，自主品牌大舉反攻60%),MPV新產(chǎn)品在追求泛轎車化，出現(xiàn)進(jìn)一步向家用型功能需求方向傾斜的定位，如：,新奧德賽“多功能轎車；優(yōu)翼Karry“城市多功能轎廂車,新普力馬“全能家轎；優(yōu)雅Riich“轎車化微客,景逸“大兩廂轎車；帥克CDV基于轎車平臺的廂式車/城市多功能商用車“,MPV,細(xì)分市場存在的問題,22,關(guān)于市場認(rèn)知：,用戶對MPV認(rèn)知屬于慢熱型，下半年加速增長,充分宣傳MPV多功能兼用性特點(diǎn),會(huì)好賣(集于一身),擁車與用車本錢高：,同平臺車型，價(jià)格高于轎車；廂體大，油耗大，特別在油價(jià)上升期，難以有競爭優(yōu)勢,提高品質(zhì)，做精工藝，提高發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)科技水平，燃油更經(jīng)濟(jì),需要營銷效勞創(chuàng)新：,帥克的“百城萬人免費(fèi)使用大行動(dòng),新一代普力馬的5年10萬公里；新奧德賽的3年10萬公里,為解決方案,23,Content,2021年MPV市場分析,2021年市場展望,局部機(jī)構(gòu)近期對中國GDP增長率的預(yù)測,24,預(yù)測機(jī)構(gòu),2009,年,2010,年,高盛集團(tuán),9.4%,11.9%,野村證券,8.0%,10.0%,花旗集團(tuán),-,9.8%,申銀萬國,8.3%,8.5%,澳大利亞投資銀行,-,10.3%,國際貨幣基金組織,8.5%,9.0%,乘用車發(fā)展規(guī)律,5,20,100,250,千人保有量在,5,輛以下,千人