外文出處：The Evolution of Project ManagementThe Evolution of Project ManagementBy Sandro Azzopardi Importance of Project Management is an important topic because all organisations, be they small or large, at one time or other, are involved in implementing new undertakings. These undertakings may be diverse, such as, the development of a new product or service; theestablishment of a new production line in a manufacturing enterprise; a public relationspromotion campaign; or a major building programme. Whilst the 1980s were about quality and the 1990s were all about globalisation, the 2000s are about velocity. That is, to keep ahead of their competitors, organisations are continually faced with the development of complex products, services and processes with very short time-to-market windows combined with the need for cross-functional expertise. In this scenario, project management becomes a very important and powerful tool in the hands of organisations that understand its use and have the competencies to apply it. The development of project management capabilities in organisations, simultaneously with the application of information management systems, allow enterprise teams to work in partnership in defining plans and managing take-to-market projects by synchronising team-oriented tasks, schedules, and resource allocations. This allows cross-functional teams to create and share project information. However, this is not sufficient, information management systems have the potential to allow project management practices to take place in a real-time environment. As a consequence of this potential project management proficiency, locally, nationally or globally dispersed users are able to concurrently view and interact with the same updated project information immediately, including project schedules, threaded discussions, and other relevant documentation. In this scenario the term dispersed user takes on a wider meaning. It not only includes the cross-functional management teams but also experts drawn from the organisations supply chain, and business partners. On a macro level organisations are motivated to implement project management techniques to ensure that their undertakings (small or major) are delivered on time, within the cost budget and to the stipulated quality. On a micro level, project management combined with an appropriate information management system has the objectives of: (a) reducing project overhead costs; (b) customising the project workplace to fit the operational style of the project teams and respective team members; (c) proactively informing the executive management strata of the strategic projects on a real-time basis; (d) ensuring that project team members share accurate, meaningful and timely project documents; and (e) ensuring that critical task deadlines are met. Whilst the motivation and objectives to apply project management in organisations is commendable, they do not assure project success. However, before discussing the meaning and achievement of project success it is appropriate at this stage to provide a brief history of project management. Brief History of Project Management Project management has been practiced for thousands of years dating back to the Egyptian epoch, but it was in the mid-1950s that organisations commenced applying formal project management tools and techniques to complex projects. Modern project management methods had their origins in two parallel but different problems of planning and control in projects in the United States. The first case involved the U.S Navy, which at that time was concerned with the control of contracts for its Polaris Missile project. These contracts consisted of research, development work and manufacturing of parts that were unique and had never been previously undertaken. This particular project was characterised by high uncertainty, since neither cost nor time could be accurately estimated. Hence, completion times were based on probabilities. Time estimates were based on optimistic, pessimistic and most likely. These three time scenarios were mathematically assessed to determine the probable completion date. This procedure The Evolution of Project Management 2 was called program evaluation review technique (PERT). Initially, the PERT technique did not take into consideration cost. However, the cost feature was later included using the same estimating approach as with time. Due to the three estimation scenarios, PERT was found (and still is) to be best suited for projects with a high degree of uncertainty reflecting their level of uniqueness. The second case, involved the private sector, namely, E.I du Pont de Nemours Company, which had undertaken to construct major chemical plants in U.S. Unlike the Navy Polaris project, these construction undertakings required accurate time and cost estimates. The methodology developed by this company was originally referred to as project planning and scheduling (PPS). PPS required realistic estimates of cost and time, and is thus a more definitive approach than PERT. The PPS technique was later developed into the critical path method (CPM) that became very popular with the construction industry. During the 1960s and 1970s, both PERT and CPM increased their popularity within the private and public sectors. Defence Departments of various countries, NASA, and large engineering and construction companies world wide applied project management principles and tools to manage large budget, schedule-driven projects. The popularity in the use of these project management tools during this period coincided with the development of computers and the associated packages that specialised in project management. However, initially these computer packages were very costly and were executed only on mainframe or mini computers. The use of project management techniques in the 1980s was facilitated with the advent of the personal computer and associated low cost project management software. Hence, during this period, the manufacturing and software development sectors commenced to adopt and implement sophisticated project management practices as well. By the 1990s, project management theories, tools and techniques were widely received by different industries and organisations. Four periods in the development of modern project management. 1 Prior to 1958: Craft system to human relations. During this time, the evolution of technology, such as, automobiles and telecommunications shortened the project schedule. For instance, automobiles allowed effective resource allocation and mobility, whilst the telecommunication system increased the speed of communication. Furthermore, the job specification which later became the basis of developing the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) was widely used and Henry Gantt invented the Gantt chart. Examples of projects undertaken during this period as supported by documented evidence include: (a) Building the Pacific Railroad in 1850s; (b) Construction of the Hoover Dam in 1931-1936, that employed approximately 5,200 workers and is still one of the highest gravity dams in the U.S. generating about four billion kilowatt hours a year; and (c) The Manhattan Project in 1942-1945 that was the pioneer research and development project for producing the atomic bomb, involving 125,000 workers and costing nearly $2 billion. 2 1958-1979: Application of Management Science. Significant technology advancement took place between 1958 and 1979, such as, the first automatic plain-paper copier by Xerox in 1959. Between 1956 and 1958 several core project management tools including CPM and PERT were introduced. However, this period was characterised by the rapid development of computer technology. The progression from the mainframe to the mini-computer in the 1970s made computers affordable to medium size companies. In 1975, Bill Gates and Paul Allen founded Microsoft. Furthermore, the evolution of computer technology facilitated the emergence of several project management software companies, including, Artemis (1977), Oracle (1977), and Scitor Corporation (1979). In the 1970s other project management tools such as Material Requirements Planning (MRP) were also introduced. Examples of projects undertaken during this period and which influenced the development of modem project management as we know it today include: (a) Polaris missile project initiated in 1956 that had the objective of delivering nuclear missiles carried by submarines, known as Fleet Ballistic Missile for the U.S Navy. The project successfully launched its first Polaris missile in 1961; (b) Apollo project initiated in 1960 with the objective of sending man to the moon; and (c) E.I du Pont de Nemours chemical plant project commencing in 1958, that had the objective of building major chemical production plants across the U.S. The Evolution of Project Management 3 3 1980-1994: Production Centre Human Resources. The 1980s and 1990s are characterised by the revolutionary development in the information management sector with the introduction of the personal computer (PC) and associated computer communications networking facilities. This development resulted in having low cost multitasking PCs that had high efficiency in managing and controlling complex project schedules. During this period low cost project management software for PCs became widely available that made project management techniques more easily accessible. Examples of major projects undertaken during this period that illustrate the application of high technology, and project management tools and practices include: (a) England France Channel project, 1989 to1991. This project was an international project that involved two governments, several financial institutions, engineering construction companies, and other various organisations from the two countries. The language, use of standard metrics, and other communication differences needed to be closely coordinated; (b) Space Shuttle Challenger project, 1983 to 1986. The disaster of the Challenger space shuttle focused attention on risk management, group dynamics, and quality management; and (c) xv Calgary Winter Olympic of 1988, which successfully applied project management practices to event management. 4 1995-Present: Creating a New Environment. This period is dominated by the developments related to the Internet that changed dramatically business practices in the mid 1990s. The Internet has provided fast, interactive, and customised new medium that allows people to browse, purchase, and track products and services online instantly. This has resulted in making firms more productive, more efficient, and more client oriented. Furthermore, many of todays project management software have an Internet connectivity feature. This allows automatic uploading of data so that anyone around the globe with a standard browser can: (a) input the most recent status of their assigned tasks; (b) find out how the overall project is doing; (c) be informed of any delays or advances in the schedule, while working independently at a remote site. An example of a major project undertaken during this period is the Year 2000 (Y2K) project.The Y2K Project, known as the millennium bug referred to the problem that computers may not function correctly on January lst, 2000 at 12 AM. This was a global phenomenon and was highly problematic because resolving the problem at ones organisation did not guarantee immunity, since a breakdown in the organisations supply chain could affect the organisations operating capability. Many organisations set up a project office to control and comply with their stakeholders regarding the Y2K issue. Furthermore, use of the Internet was common practice that led to the establishment of the virtual project office. The goal of this virtual project office was: (a) to deliver uninterrupted turn-of-the-century; (b) monitor Y2K project efforts; (c) provide coordination; (d) develop a risk management plan; and (e) communicate Y2K compliance efforts with various stakeholders. Thus, the virtual project office was a focal point for all the project works, and it increased the awareness and importance of risk management practices to numerous organisations. Why Project Management? There is no doubt that organisations today face more aggressive competition than in the past and the business environment they operate in is a highly turbulent one. It should be emphasised that the causes for the failure to deliver on time, on budget and to the quality of performance expected could be addressed by the application of project management practices. Furthermore, the failure to deliver on time, on budget and to the quality of performance expected does not necessarily mean that the project was itself a failure. At this stage what is being discussed is the effectiveness and efficiency of project execution and not whether a project is a success or failure. Conclusion Project management should be viewed as a tool that helps organisations to execute designated projects effectively and efficiently. The use of this tool does not automatically guarantee project success. (project success will be discussed in a subsequent issue). However, in preparation for the next issue, I would like you to think about the distinction between project success and project management success. This distinction will provide further insight to the questions: Why are some projects perceived as failures when they have met all the traditional standards of success, namely, completed on time, completed within budget, and meeting all the technical specifications? Why are some projects perceived to be successful when they have failed to meet two important criteria that are traditionally associated with success, namely, not completed on time and not completed within budget? Sandro Azzopardi is a professional author who writes articles on various subjects on his web site and local newspapers and magazines. You can visit information about this article and others on The Info Pit 項(xiàng)目管理的演變 桑德羅阿澤帕迪 項(xiàng)目管理的重要性，是一個重要的課題，因?yàn)樗械慕M織，無論是或大或小，在同一時間或其他參與實(shí)施新的事業(yè)。這些事業(yè)可能是多種多樣的，例如，開發(fā)一個新產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)；建立一個新的生產(chǎn)線；在制造企業(yè)公共關(guān)系推廣活動或重大建設(shè)方案。 80年代有關(guān)質(zhì)量； 90年代關(guān)于全球化，二十一世紀(jì)關(guān)于速度。也就是說，要保持領(lǐng)先其競爭對手，組織不斷面臨發(fā)展復(fù)雜的產(chǎn)品，服務(wù)和進(jìn)程在很短的時間與市場的窗口相結(jié)合還有跨職能專業(yè)知識的需要。在這種情況下，項(xiàng)目管理成為在了解它的使用者手中的非常重要和強(qiáng)大的工具。在組織發(fā)展中的項(xiàng)目管理能力，同時與信息管理系統(tǒng)的應(yīng)用，使企業(yè)團(tuán)隊(duì)工作定義計(jì)劃和管理團(tuán)隊(duì)同步。考慮到市場項(xiàng)目的合作伙伴面向的任務(wù)，時間安排和資源分配。這允許跨職能團(tuán)隊(duì)創(chuàng)建和共享項(xiàng)目信息。然而，這是不夠的，信息管理系統(tǒng)有可能使項(xiàng)目管理者根據(jù)地方環(huán)境采取實(shí)時管理方案。在當(dāng)?shù)?，由于這種潛在的項(xiàng)目管理能力，使國家或分散在全球各地的用戶能夠同時查看和具有相同互動；立即更新的項(xiàng)目信息的能力，包括項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度，主題討論，和其他有關(guān)文件。在這種情況下，長期分散的用戶需要有更廣泛的意義。它不僅僅包括跨職能的管理團(tuán)隊(duì)。專家們還定義組織的供應(yīng)鏈和業(yè)務(wù)合作伙伴。在宏觀層面上組織積極實(shí)施項(xiàng)目管理技術(shù)以確保他們的事業(yè)（小的或主要的）在成本預(yù)算范圍內(nèi)按時交付，并保證規(guī)定的質(zhì)量。在微觀層面上，與項(xiàng)目管理相結(jié)合信息管理系統(tǒng)的目標(biāo)是：（一）減少項(xiàng)目間接費(fèi)用；（二）自定義項(xiàng)目的工作場所，以適應(yīng)項(xiàng)目團(tuán)隊(duì)和各自的團(tuán)隊(duì)成員的運(yùn)作風(fēng)格；（三）主動通知執(zhí)行管理；（四）確保項(xiàng)目團(tuán)隊(duì)成員實(shí)時的基礎(chǔ)的戰(zhàn)略項(xiàng)目分享準(zhǔn)確，有意義和及時的項(xiàng)目文件及確保關(guān)鍵任務(wù)完成最后期限。雖然應(yīng)用項(xiàng)目管理的動機(jī)和目標(biāo)組織是值得稱贊的，他們不保證項(xiàng)目的成功。然而，在討論的意義和實(shí)現(xiàn)項(xiàng)目的成功，它是適當(dāng)?shù)脑谶@個階段，提供了項(xiàng)目管理的簡要?dú)v史。項(xiàng)目管理簡史：項(xiàng)目管理已實(shí)行多年，歷史可以追溯到埃及數(shù)千年前，但它是在1950年中期，某項(xiàng)目組織正式開始申請管理工具和技術(shù)復(fù)雜的項(xiàng)目?，F(xiàn)代項(xiàng)目管理方法有兩個平行的，但不同的問題，在規(guī)劃和控制它們的起源是在美國的項(xiàng)目。 第一個案例，當(dāng)時這是美國海軍關(guān)注與控制北極星導(dǎo)彈項(xiàng)目合同。這些合同包括研究，開發(fā)。工作是獨(dú)特的部分制造業(yè)和從未進(jìn)行的行業(yè)。這個特定項(xiàng)目的特點(diǎn)是高度的不確定性，因?yàn)闆]有成本，也沒有準(zhǔn)確時間。因此在概率的基礎(chǔ)上。時間估計(jì)是根據(jù)樂觀，悲觀和最有可能。通過這三個方案數(shù)學(xué)評估，以確定可能的完工日期。此過程中的演化出項(xiàng)目管理被稱為“計(jì)劃評審技術(shù)（PERT）。最初，“PERT技術(shù)不考慮到成本。然而，后來包括使用相同的成本功能隨著時間的估算方法。通過三個估計(jì)方案，發(fā)現(xiàn)PERT是（現(xiàn)在仍然是）最適合項(xiàng)目的，也反映他們的水平高的不確定性程度獨(dú)特之處。 第二個例子，私營部門的參與，即杜邦的內(nèi)穆爾公司，進(jìn)行了在美國興建大型化工廠，不同海軍北極星項(xiàng)目是這些建設(shè)事業(yè)需要精確的時間和成本估計(jì)。由這家公司開發(fā)的方法作為項(xiàng)目最初規(guī)劃和調(diào)度（聚苯硫醚）。 PPS的現(xiàn)實(shí)估計(jì)需要的時間和成本，因而是比PERT的更明確的方法。 PPS的技術(shù)，后來發(fā)展成關(guān)鍵路徑法（CPM）在建造業(yè)成為非常受歡迎的。PERT和CPM在20世紀(jì)60年代和70年代，在增加他們的知名度。各個國家，美國宇航局和大型國防部門工程和建筑公司用全球廣泛應(yīng)用的項(xiàng)目管理原則和工具來管理龐大的預(yù)算，時間表驅(qū)動的項(xiàng)目。在使用普及這些項(xiàng)目管理工具，在此期間，在項(xiàng)目管理專業(yè)正值發(fā)展計(jì)算機(jī)及相關(guān)包。然而，最初，這些電腦包是非常昂貴的，只在大型機(jī)執(zhí)行或微型計(jì)算機(jī)。在20世紀(jì)80年代便利個人電腦和相關(guān)的成本低的項(xiàng)目管理軟件的問世后項(xiàng)目管理技術(shù)才得到廣泛應(yīng)用。因此，在此期間，制造和軟件開發(fā)部門開始采取和實(shí)施以及復(fù)雜的項(xiàng)目管理實(shí)踐。在20世紀(jì)90年代，項(xiàng)目管理理論，工具和技術(shù)被不同行業(yè)和組織廣泛接受。 現(xiàn)代項(xiàng)目管理的發(fā)展可分為四個時期。1958年之前：工藝系統(tǒng)，人與人之間的關(guān)系。在此期間，進(jìn)化技術(shù)，如，汽車，電信，縮短項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度。例如，汽車，有效的資源配置和流動，而通信系統(tǒng)增加了通信速度。此外，工作規(guī)范后來做為發(fā)展工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)的基礎(chǔ)（WBS），被廣泛使用，亨利甘特發(fā)明的甘特圖。（一）建設(shè)建造胡佛水壩，現(xiàn)在仍然是一個在美國最高的重力壩生產(chǎn)能力約40億千瓦小時，及在1942年的曼哈頓計(jì)劃 - 1945年是為生產(chǎn)原子彈的先驅(qū)研究和發(fā)展項(xiàng)目，涉及125000工人，耗資近20億美元。1958年至1979年：管理科學(xué)中的應(yīng)用重大的技術(shù)進(jìn)步了，例如，第一臺自動普通紙施樂復(fù)印機(jī)問世在1959年。在1956年和1958年有幾個核心的項(xiàng)目管理工具，包括CPM和PERT的相繼出臺。然而，這一時期的特點(diǎn)是快速發(fā)展計(jì)算機(jī)技術(shù)。從大型機(jī)到微型計(jì)算機(jī)，在1970年中等規(guī)模的公司生產(chǎn)的電腦能負(fù)擔(dān)得起。 在1975年，比爾蓋茨和保羅艾倫創(chuàng)辦了微軟。此外，計(jì)算機(jī)技術(shù)的發(fā)展促進(jìn)了出現(xiàn)了幾個項(xiàng)目管理軟件公司，包括阿蒂米斯（1977），甲骨文公司（1977），和Scitor公司（1979年）。在1970年的其他項(xiàng)目管理工具物料需求計(jì)劃（MRP）等也被引入。項(xiàng)目的例子，在此期間開展和發(fā)展今天我們所知道的現(xiàn)代項(xiàng)目管理包括：（一）北極星導(dǎo)彈項(xiàng)目啟動在1956年提供核導(dǎo)彈潛艇進(jìn)行客觀的，被稱為中美海軍艦隊(duì)彈道導(dǎo)彈。該項(xiàng)目成功地推出了其第一寶來導(dǎo)彈在1961年;（二）阿波羅計(jì)劃于1960年開始與發(fā)送人到月球;（三）EI杜邦的內(nèi)穆爾化工廠于1958年開始的項(xiàng)目，在美國的主要化學(xué)品生產(chǎn)廠建設(shè)進(jìn)行項(xiàng)目管理，1980年至1994年：生產(chǎn)中心的人力資源。 20世紀(jì)80年代和90年代根據(jù)信息管理部門與革命的發(fā)展特點(diǎn)引進(jìn)的個人計(jì)算機(jī)（PC）和相關(guān)的計(jì)算機(jī)通信網(wǎng)絡(luò)設(shè)施。這種發(fā)展導(dǎo)致成本低的多任務(wù)電腦能高效率的管理和控制復(fù)雜項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度。在此期間低成本項(xiàng)目管理軟件的PC被廣泛使用，使得項(xiàng)目管理技術(shù)更容易獲得。在此期間開展重大項(xiàng)目的例子，技術(shù)和項(xiàng)目管理工具和做法包括：（一）英國法國通道項(xiàng)目，1989年1991該項(xiàng)目是一個國際項(xiàng)目，該項(xiàng)目涉及兩個政府，多家金融機(jī)構(gòu)，工程建設(shè)公司，以及其他涉及兩國的各種組織。語言，使用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的指標(biāo)，其它都需要密切協(xié)調(diào)溝通;（二）航天飛機(jī) “挑戰(zhàn)者”項(xiàng)目，1983年至1986年。 “挑戰(zhàn)者”號航天飛機(jī)的災(zāi)難使人們重視風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理，團(tuán)體動力學(xué)，質(zhì)量管理;以及卡爾加里1988年的冬季奧運(yùn)會，它成功地應(yīng)用項(xiàng)目管理方法。 1995年至今創(chuàng)建了一個新的環(huán)境，這期間主要是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的發(fā)展，在中期顯著重要的意義。互聯(lián)網(wǎng)提供了快速，互動，定制新的媒介，使人們?yōu)g覽，購買軌道產(chǎn)品和網(wǎng)上的服務(wù)更及時。這導(dǎo)致公司更具生產(chǎn)力，更高效，更以客戶為導(dǎo)向。此外，許多今天的項(xiàng)目管理軟件有一個互聯(lián)網(wǎng)連接功能。這使得數(shù)據(jù)自動上傳，因此，世界各地的人標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的瀏覽器可以同步：（一）輸入分配給他們的任務(wù)最近期的狀態(tài);（二）找出整個項(xiàng)目如何做;（三）被告知在日程中的任何延誤或進(jìn)步;在此期間進(jìn)行了重大項(xiàng)目的一個例子是2000年（Y2K）項(xiàng)目。千年蟲的項(xiàng)目，被稱為“千年蟲”的問題，計(jì)算機(jī)可能不正確運(yùn)作上，2000年1月1號在12 AM。這是一個全球性的現(xiàn)象，被高度重視問題，因?yàn)闆]有解決問題的組織保證豁免權(quán)，因?yàn)樵谠摻M織的供應(yīng)鏈的崩潰，可能會影響該組織的經(jīng)營能力。許多組織成立了項(xiàng)目辦公室，以控制和遵守他們對千年蟲問題的利益相關(guān)者。此外，使用互聯(lián)網(wǎng)是共同的的做法，導(dǎo)致了虛擬項(xiàng)目辦公室成立。這個虛擬的目標(biāo)項(xiàng)目辦公室：（a）提供不間斷轉(zhuǎn)動的世紀(jì);（b）監(jiān)測Y2K項(xiàng)目努力;（c）提供協(xié)調(diào);（d）制定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì);及（e）溝通位置提到的合規(guī)性工作，與各利益攸關(guān)方。因此，虛擬項(xiàng)目辦公室是一個協(xié)調(diào)中心所有項(xiàng)目點(diǎn)工作，并增加風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的意識和重要性許多組織的管理實(shí)踐。為什么要項(xiàng)目管理？毫無疑問，該組織今天面臨著比過去更加激烈的競爭他們經(jīng)營的營商環(huán)境，是一個高度動蕩環(huán)境。 應(yīng)當(dāng)強(qiáng)調(diào)，失敗的原因，以按時交付，預(yù)算和預(yù)期的性能質(zhì)量，可以由項(xiàng)目申請管理實(shí)踐。此外，未能按時交付，預(yù)算和的預(yù)期性能的質(zhì)量并不一定意味著該項(xiàng)目本身就是一個失敗。在這個階段，正在討論的是項(xiàng)目的有效性和效率執(zhí)行，而不是一個項(xiàng)目是否是一個成功或失敗。結(jié)論應(yīng)被視為一種工具，幫助組織執(zhí)行項(xiàng)目管理指定工程項(xiàng)目，有效和高效。使用這個工具不會自動保證項(xiàng)目的成功。 （項(xiàng)目的成功將在隨后的問題討論）。然而，在為準(zhǔn)備下一個問題，我想你想想?yún)^(qū)別項(xiàng)目的成功和項(xiàng)目管理的成功。這種區(qū)別將提供進(jìn)一步了解的問題：為什么有些項(xiàng)目被視為失敗時，他們有符合所有傳統(tǒng)的成功標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，即，完成時間，完成內(nèi)預(yù)算，并滿足所有的技術(shù)規(guī)格？為什么有些項(xiàng)目被認(rèn)為是成功時，他們并沒有滿足兩個重要的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是傳統(tǒng)與成功相關(guān)，即，不按時完成，而不是在預(yù)算之內(nèi)完成。8